It's not harvesting time for AAP in Tamilnadu

Yogendra Yadav (right) speaking to AAP volunteers in Chennai, Tamilnadu

Elections in Tamil Nadu this time are different from the previous years. For almost four decades the state has seen predominantly a bipolar contest between the DMK and the AIADMK, with the national and regional parties being in coalition with the big two Dravidian parties. This time, the Congress has decided to go alone in the state. The BJP has cobbled up a five-party alliance of regional parties, which failed to hitch a ride with either the DMK or the AIADMK. The entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has made it a five-corner contest in many seats.
The AAP, after its success in Delhi, has stretched its arms to other states in India and is contesting 434 Lok Sabha seats this election. In Tamil Nadu it is contesting 24 of the 39 seats.
AAP has many positives to its campaign — candidates with a clean background, a vehement stand against corruption and above all, no tall promises. While on paper this would seem good, the truth is that in the jigsaw of Indian politics where religion, caste, gender, region, etc play deciding factors, good intentions and promises alone won’t do.
However, AAP leaders are upbeat about the reaction the party has been receiving. “I am encouraged by the large number of volunteers who have joined this movement,” Yogendra Yadav told the Hindustan Times during a fundraiser dinner in Chennai. “It has been the hallmark of AAP that the spirit of voluntary work has been restored to politics. In the face of professional paid political workers who dominate all political parties, this is quite a relief and a matter of honour for someone like me working for the party. There is an excitement among the youth, minorities, middle class professionals and disadvantageous groups.”
AAP was slow to begin its campaign in the state. Many of its candidates have been campaigning for only two months and that’s too short a time for a new party taking on established parties like the DMK and the AIADMK. This is an observation David Barunkumar, AAP’s convenor in the state, agrees: “In Tamil Nadu, we took some time in the selection of candidates and so the time available for the candidates to campaign was very short.”
Raja, a vendor next to the Gandhi statue in Chennai, has not heard of AAP. “It must be a party in Karnataka or Bombay (sic).” Give a hint about the white Gandhi topi and he recollects the “thodapam” (broom in Tamil). “I have seen them,” is all that he can say about the party and does not know the name of the AAP candidate.

The AAP office in The Nilgiris, Tamilnadu

AAP has fielded candidates against A Raja in The Nilgiris and against Dayanidhi Maran in Central Chennai. The opposition has highlighted the scams in which both the DMK leaders have been accused. “Corruption becomes an issue when there is an alternative which seems to be viable. If people have two corrupt parties to choose from, corruption does not become an issue. That is why the DMK and the AIADMK have gone about doing what they do. Moreover, how can Jayalalithaa or Karunanidhi talk about corruption? In Pune they [Congress] could not give a ticket to Suresh Kalmadi. Here [in Tamil Nadu] they think they can get away with murder and it is our job to show that they can’t,” Yadav said.
However, AAP is not really a factor in Tamil Nadu in 2014. But AAP could upset the chances of the top contender in a few constituencies. For example, Maran is the sitting MP and principal contender in Central Chennai. All other candidates, including AAP’s J Prabhakar, are targeting Maran. In such a scenario, where the votes are split, the winning margin will be considerably reduced. It is here that parties like AAP can make the difference.
It is unlikely that many of AAPs 24 candidates in Tamil Nadu will emerge victorious. One of the seats the party is hopeful about winning is Kanyakumari. AAP’s candidate SP Udayakumar, who led the anti-Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project protests, has got tremendous support — but so has BJP’s Pon Radhakrishnan and Congress’ H Vasanth Kumar is not a pushover.
As far as AAP’s expectations and strategy in Tamil Nadu this election is concerned, Yadav succinctly summed up: “We are planting seeds right now. This is not harvesting time for us (in Tamil Nadu). Every seed counts because in the long term it can be decisive.”
(An abridged version of this appeared in the Hindustan Times)

Modi-Powell meeting: Does Modi need the United States?

For anyone who has been following the campaign by political parties in India leading to the general elections this summer, the Hindustan Times report that United States ambassador to India Nancy Powell has got permission from the Centre to meet Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi does not come as a surprise.
If opinion polls are anything to go by, Washington will soon have to do business with a government in New Delhi headed by Modi. For the US, which holds the adage 'there are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests' as the bedrock of its diplomatic relations with foreign nations, it was natural to warm up to Modi. Clearly, both the US and Modi have come a long way since 2005 when the Gujarat CM was denied a US visa.
However, there are two points to take away from this US climb-down. The first: Is Washington trying to 'influence', albeit covertly, the political scenario in India? Citing this, many political parties have taken objection to Ms Powell's move. This is also because the US has a checkered past when it comes to 'influencing' elections (a recent example being the admission by former US defence secretary Robert Gates in his memoir that the US tried to delay and manipulate the 2009 Afghan presidential election outcome). Given this, the US embassy statement that the meeting was "part of our concentrated outreach to senior political and economic leaders which began in November to highlight the US-India relationship" can be taken with a pinch of salt.
The second: Is it really a victory for Modi? The party has rightly refrained from speaking about this proposed meeting in a shrill pitch and will do well to overcome the temptation to go to town tom-toming this as Modi's 'achievement'. If the BJP was to highlight this as an achievement, it can be accused of doublespeak and of being opportunistic.
Modi has grown in stature over the years despite the US and to a certain extent the US boycott has helped further his image as a 'desi' leader who 'is-not-a-American-stooge'.
In the crystal ball of Indian politics, Washington's retraction is a clear shot in the arm for the BJP's prime ministerial candidate. It does not require clairvoyance to see that countries, like the UK, the EU and now the US, are reacting after witnessing the 'Modi wave'.
When the political and diplomatic dust settles one thing is evident: This is a victory for Narendra Modi. But the question to be asked, in true 'NaMonomic' style is: Does Modi require the US or its endorsement at this point of time?
(This appeared in the Hindustan Times on February 11)

Mumbai gangrape: Little hope for women in India

                                                                                                                 AP photo

The August 22 Mumbai gangrape was shocking. What were more shocking were the reactions that poured in.
If anyone thought that women were safe in India after the massive protests following the December 16 gangrape in Delhi last year, I’ll blame the prince charming who kissed back to life these Snow Whites (they were better off sleeping). For various reasons, our public spaces are not going to be any safer for women in the near future, unless there is some drastic change — and frankly, nothing is in sight.
The administration has reacted in an almost textbook fashion. Maharashtra home minister RR Patil’s suggestion to send the police with every woman journalist working alone or in isolated places betrays an agonising lethargy shown towards an application of mind. Why can’t the home minister ensure that ‘isolated places’ are not the dens for anti-social elements? Why wasn’t the mills and surrounding area, notorious for its drug pushers, etc, not better policed?
The suspects are being pursued and in all likelihood they will be caught. What after that? Jayanto’s Tooingin in the August 24 Hindustan Times very succinctly conveys at least two things: One, the arrogance of the culprits who care two hoots for the ‘tough’ laws and know that the speed limit for ‘fast-track courts’ are not-above-20kms/hr. Second, the helplessness the reader seeing the cartoon.
The media also needs to get its act right. Reactions of horror, almost presuming that until then everything was hunky-dory, is being unfair to the many women who have to face various forms of abuse, perhaps on a daily basis, but do not reach the media’s ‘horror’ scale qualifying to be ‘news’.
Unfortunately, there is no magic pill or a spell that can get things bright starting tomorrow. But there are things that can be done, small steps that can lead to a greater change. The average politician who cries that things should change should lead from the front. For starters, let them come together and pass the Women’s Reservation Bill. This might not stop rapes or make public spaces safer for women but it will sure be a big step towards reaching that goal. There are more steps that can be taken: women’s safety is appallingly low not because for want of ideas, but for want of a will to do so.
Until then, it’s not a sunny day for women in India’s cities, towns and villages. To borrow from John Lennon (and tamper with a beautiful line): ‘You may say I'm a pessimist / But I'm not the only one’.