It's not harvesting time for AAP in Tamilnadu

Yogendra Yadav (right) speaking to AAP volunteers in Chennai, Tamilnadu

Elections in Tamil Nadu this time are different from the previous years. For almost four decades the state has seen predominantly a bipolar contest between the DMK and the AIADMK, with the national and regional parties being in coalition with the big two Dravidian parties. This time, the Congress has decided to go alone in the state. The BJP has cobbled up a five-party alliance of regional parties, which failed to hitch a ride with either the DMK or the AIADMK. The entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has made it a five-corner contest in many seats.
The AAP, after its success in Delhi, has stretched its arms to other states in India and is contesting 434 Lok Sabha seats this election. In Tamil Nadu it is contesting 24 of the 39 seats.
AAP has many positives to its campaign — candidates with a clean background, a vehement stand against corruption and above all, no tall promises. While on paper this would seem good, the truth is that in the jigsaw of Indian politics where religion, caste, gender, region, etc play deciding factors, good intentions and promises alone won’t do.
However, AAP leaders are upbeat about the reaction the party has been receiving. “I am encouraged by the large number of volunteers who have joined this movement,” Yogendra Yadav told the Hindustan Times during a fundraiser dinner in Chennai. “It has been the hallmark of AAP that the spirit of voluntary work has been restored to politics. In the face of professional paid political workers who dominate all political parties, this is quite a relief and a matter of honour for someone like me working for the party. There is an excitement among the youth, minorities, middle class professionals and disadvantageous groups.”
AAP was slow to begin its campaign in the state. Many of its candidates have been campaigning for only two months and that’s too short a time for a new party taking on established parties like the DMK and the AIADMK. This is an observation David Barunkumar, AAP’s convenor in the state, agrees: “In Tamil Nadu, we took some time in the selection of candidates and so the time available for the candidates to campaign was very short.”
Raja, a vendor next to the Gandhi statue in Chennai, has not heard of AAP. “It must be a party in Karnataka or Bombay (sic).” Give a hint about the white Gandhi topi and he recollects the “thodapam” (broom in Tamil). “I have seen them,” is all that he can say about the party and does not know the name of the AAP candidate.

The AAP office in The Nilgiris, Tamilnadu

AAP has fielded candidates against A Raja in The Nilgiris and against Dayanidhi Maran in Central Chennai. The opposition has highlighted the scams in which both the DMK leaders have been accused. “Corruption becomes an issue when there is an alternative which seems to be viable. If people have two corrupt parties to choose from, corruption does not become an issue. That is why the DMK and the AIADMK have gone about doing what they do. Moreover, how can Jayalalithaa or Karunanidhi talk about corruption? In Pune they [Congress] could not give a ticket to Suresh Kalmadi. Here [in Tamil Nadu] they think they can get away with murder and it is our job to show that they can’t,” Yadav said.
However, AAP is not really a factor in Tamil Nadu in 2014. But AAP could upset the chances of the top contender in a few constituencies. For example, Maran is the sitting MP and principal contender in Central Chennai. All other candidates, including AAP’s J Prabhakar, are targeting Maran. In such a scenario, where the votes are split, the winning margin will be considerably reduced. It is here that parties like AAP can make the difference.
It is unlikely that many of AAPs 24 candidates in Tamil Nadu will emerge victorious. One of the seats the party is hopeful about winning is Kanyakumari. AAP’s candidate SP Udayakumar, who led the anti-Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project protests, has got tremendous support — but so has BJP’s Pon Radhakrishnan and Congress’ H Vasanth Kumar is not a pushover.
As far as AAP’s expectations and strategy in Tamil Nadu this election is concerned, Yadav succinctly summed up: “We are planting seeds right now. This is not harvesting time for us (in Tamil Nadu). Every seed counts because in the long term it can be decisive.”
(An abridged version of this appeared in the Hindustan Times)