Million March: Bilawal Bhutto’s desperate attempt to revive his party backfires

Bilawal Bhutto

Kashmir is always a nice fallback issue for politicians of all hues in Pakistan especially if they are not doing too well at home. So it was no surprise to see the non-starter Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto trying to pull out this hoary old chestnut on Sunday in London. In what was billed as the ‘Million March’, Mr Bhutto tried to rouse a crowd of people by raving about India’s ‘human rights violations’ in Jammu & Kashmir. But the drama did not go according to script as the crowd pelted him with eggs and tomatoes. In September, in a desperate attempt to revive the PPP, the young Bhutto vowed to reclaim every inch of Kashmir. Not to be left behind, former army chief and president Pervez Musharraf also came out boasting of the Pakistani army’s capabilities of attacking India. In a country where its all-powerful army’s raison d’être is its enmity towards India, ‘India-bashing’ is the best way for politicians to remain relevant. The recent sabre-rattling by these discredited politicians must be seen in this light.
From 1947, Pakistan has repeatedly tried to raise the ‘Kashmir issue’ and fought three wars over Kashmir. The anger against Mr Bhutto could also have been a result of political rivalries within Pakistan. But the moot point is that Islamabad refuses to accept reality. Instead, it has turned a blind eye to the terror factories operating in PoK and the ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence service, is aiding and abetting terror groups, like the LeT and JeM, etc, to spread terror in India. Its repeated attempts to internationalise the ‘Kashmir issue’ have failed, with the United Nations and many countries stressing that India and Pakistan must resolve the issue at a bilateral level.
Pakistan must conduct itself with dignity if it wants to earn the respect of other nations. Its leaders would do well to talk about the real issues affecting the country, like its economy and security. Jammu & Kashmir will hold assembly elections in the next two months and it is expected that the people of the state will repose faith in India’s democratic system as was done in 2008. Pakistan has wasted more than six decades of its existence trying to foment unrest in the Valley. Meanwhile the terror groups it has nurtured have come back to bite it. The Kashmir issue is one of diminishing returns as hapless Bilawal’s experience showed.

India: The foreign policy for the next government

Among the many challenges that the new government will face, one will definitely be foreign policy. The world is going through testing times: The United States is due to pull its troops out of Afghanistan, Russia’s economic clout is receding, West Asia is in turmoil, and the world economy is still in the doldrums. India’s new foreign policy will have to factor in all these and much more before the government comes up with a viable blueprint.
But, more than the West, the next government’s policy trajectory towards the neighbourhood is what will be crucial. Under the UPA, India has made the right steps towards increasing trade and interactions with China. However, New Delhi should be more flexible towards Chinese investments and use its capabilities on our terms. Visits of mid-level officials between the two countries should be given a fillip. This will help in understanding the neighbour and is an investment for the future. It is the small steps, like meeting the demand for India’s soft power, which are important in the long run. Pakistan will remain a problem with no light at the end of that tunnel. With Raheel Sharif, Pakistan’s army chief, reiterating his PM on Kashmir being a ‘jugular vein’, and various terror groups openly threatening to attack India, New Delhi will have to alert and keep its expectations of peace at a realistic level. The arrest of an alleged ISI agent, by the Tamil Nadu Police on April 29, who has named an official of the Pakistan high commission in Colombo, is yet another clear indication that Islamabad is not letting go of its old ways. On the contrary, it is trying to exploit India’s vast coastline, especially the coastal parts of the South. Coastal security should be boosted and the next government must improve ties with Colombo. India and Sri Lanka need to discuss issues like the arrests of fishermen from Tamil Nadu and the democratic rights of the Lankan Tamils. New Delhi should also remove all fears and misunderstanding about the Sethusamudram Shipping Canal Project and the Kudankulam Nuclear Power project. The next government should not take for granted its goodwill of the administration in Thimpu and should do more to bring stability in Kathmandu. India should also give a more economic thrust to its ties with Myanmar, Maldives and Vietnam.

For long there has been a perception that India’s foreign policy is risk-averse. If India needs to be taken seriously in the comity of nations, this has to change. The next government must come up with a foreign policy that demonstrates a degree of flexibility where required while safeguarding India’s interests.

Is Imran Khan Pakistan’s Knight in Shining Armour?

 
It is said that politicians will always aspire to become leaders while true leaders are chosen and ushered to the front by the people when the time is ripe. The clouds move and the sky clears when it is time for the right person to emerge. Pakistan has not, in the recent past, faced such a plethora of problems all erupting in quick succession — the Raymond Davis issue, in which two people were gunned down by what Pakistan claimed was a CIA operative, saw popular anger reach a feverish pitch; the Abbottabad raid that saw Osama bin Laden killed exposed Pakistan and its Army-ISI to the world, and there was the November 26 US drone attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers severing Pak-US ties. If this was not trouble enough then came Memogate. It is alleged that President Zardari, through then Pakistan ambassador to the US Husain Haqqani (who through businessman Mansoor Ijaz) tried to request Washington to avert a military coup in Pakistan at a time when Pakistanis have written off their civilian government. Then on October 30 in Lahore and in December in Karachi cricketer-philanthropist-politician Imran Khan held a political meeting which received a phenomenal response.
If one were to go by these recent events and the media — especially international — Imran Khan is tipped to be the next messiah who will guide Pakistan in its time of trouble. While there is some truth in this theory, to believe that Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which is still considered an ‘also-ran’ in politics, will topple traditional political powerhouses like the Zardari-headed Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, is to grossly underestimate the complex equations that constitute politics in Pakistan.

TINA Factor
This is not to say that Imran Khan is a novice in politics. Gone are the days when the people saw him as a dashing cricketer-playboy who turned to politics in the belief that he could cash in on his popularity. Imran Khan, who established the PTI in 1995 has till recently been viewed by political observers as an outsider or as ‘one-of-the-many-fringe-parties’. What have worked in his favour is his clean, corruption-free image and his philanthropy. He has made a conscious effort to distance himself from his playboy days and has reiterated that his turn to politics was a spiritual call more than anything else — in a recent interview he said, “… faith has made me a responsible member of human society and that is why I have entered politics. Otherwise, I would not have entered politics.” He has established a cancer hospital (in memory of his mother who died of the disease) and a university to promote technical education. His flood relief fund raked in much more than Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani could achieve.
It is also said that Imran Khan’s mass support now is because of the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor. Pakistan’s ruling parties cutting across the spectrum are incorrigibly corrupt and the people are fed up with the way things are shaping up. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, who is better known in the western world as ‘Mr 10 Per cent’ for his involvement in corrupt deals while his late wife Benazir Bhutto was the prime minister, has still got one foot in the court. Nawaz Sharif faces corruption and nepotism charges and former president and military man Pervez Musharraf is on a ‘sabbatical’ from his homeland fearing arrest for his dealing of the judiciary. Pakistan’s economy is on life support (read foreign aid), corruption is rampant and development is stalled. Add to this law and order issues and terrorism — Pakistanis have had enough. It is here that Imran Khan comes in as a whiff of fresh air. Many of the people who recently sat up to listen to Imran Khan  at his rallies do not believe that he can deliver or give them the change they are craving for, but he is better than the other options.
How can one leave out the Pakistani Army, and the ubiquitous ISI, from this political maze? It is unfortunate but true that any discussion of politics in Pakistan is incomplete without a mention of the army; after all it is the army which has ruled the nation, often through bloody coups, for a better part of its history.

People and Judiciary
Given the events that have involved, and affected adversely, the army, and taking into account the country’s history one would not be wrong to bet on a military coup. However, the change this time is the people and the judiciary. The people, pushed to a corner, are voicing their displeasure like never before and the judiciary, under Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, is more proactive than ever. Credit should also be given to General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani for moving cautiously till now as often momentary decisions and mood swings of military heads have decided Pakistan’s course.
What might tip or has tipped the scales of the West and the military in favour of Imran is his stand towards the Taliban. Imran is for negotiations with Islamic militants — this fits Washington’s plan for a dignified exit from Afghanistan, and the military cannot disagree with the idea of getting cosy with the Taliban. His resentment of foreign aid and chastising of American action in Pakistan has won him popular support. A good example of this is a tweet of his on January 10: ‘US: We will be your friend, not your slave. We will help you withdraw from Afghanistan, but will not launch military operation for you’.

Chink in Armour
Imran’s clean image is his USP but the question is how long will it remain so? Many political heavyweights have recently moved to the PTI camp and they come with a lot of baggage. Imran Khan has long advocated reviewing the taxation system in the country which allows the rich to glide by while the middle class and others go through the eye of the needle. Imran was earlier critical of the MQM for the killing of around 40 people and was pursuing a case against the outfit. But the absence of any mention about the party at his December 25 rally in Karachi has raised speculation of a patch-up.

Another issue that is wanting in the Imran camp is the lack of a popular support base. While his rallies are receiving tens of thousands of people it is not enough to win elections. The biraderi ties are crucial. Biraderi is a clan-based, kinship-based loyalty that can spread across regions. Imran does not enjoy this support. Moreover the media that shows Imran’s popularity is yet to penetrate the rural interiors.

Imran and India
It will be safe to say that as a cricketer Imran Khan was not a pleasant experience for India. But those days of cricket rivalry are long gone and today Imran is a philanthropist and politician standing at the threshold of realising his political dream.
Given the popularity he commands, his views towards Pakistan’s ‘traditional rival’, his success is important for India. New Delhi does not see his pro-Taliban approach as palatable. So far his views towards India are not radical and he believes that cordial relations with the neighbour are beneficial for both countries. But once in the seat of power, over which the ISI wields immense power, it is hard to predict the course Pakistan’s leaders may take, especially in matter relating to India.
(An edited version of this article has appeared in The New Indian Express on January 13)

The Afghanistan Question

In a June 2011 prime-time broadcast United States President Barack Obama announced the much anticipated troop withdrawal plan from Afghanistan. But Obama was not being completely honest when he said, “We are starting this drawdown from a position of strength…” because by then it was largely acknowledged the US Afghan policy was myopic and off target.

Afghanistan became the cynosure of popular hatred after it was said that the 9/11 terror attacks on the US were masterminded by a person sitting deep inside the Tora Bora caves. Overnight Osama bin Laden’s name became synonymous with Satan and it was the ‘duty’ of the US to hunt him down. Under President George W Bush America entered Afghanistan a little over a decade after leaving the nation in shambles after defeating the Russians. The aim was to get “justice” and to get Osama “dead or alive”, to recall Bush’s September 17, 2001 statement. This was padded up with the altruistic motive of ‘liberating’ the Afghans from the evil Taliban. On May 2 the US achieved its first objective when Osama was gunned down in his Abbottabad hideout in Pakistan. The ‘liberation’ of Afghans is still a distant dream.

Groping in the Dark

Afghanistan today is a quagmire, thanks to the ‘interests’ and ‘invasions’ by the Russians in the Eighties and by Americans after 9/11. However, the coming months and years are very crucial for Afghanistan, the region and the whole world. While Obama promised to bring back US troops from Afghanistan, what he did not promise was that in withdrawing from Afghanistan America would leave it a better place than when it went into the country a decade ago. The US has not got its act together and is literally groping in the dark desperately trying to find the way out. Sherard Cowper-Coles, Britain’s Afghan envoy from 2007 to 2010, in his recent book Cables from Kabul: The Inside Story of the West’s Afghanistan Campaign says that while the coalition’s intentions were good and there was progress in the initial years, success was prematurely declared, while in reality the bad guys had just moved back into the safe havens in the Af-Pak border and into Pakistan. 

Inglorious Exit

By the time it was realised that the war was anything but over, in order to give an honourable façade to what seems to be an inglorious exit the CIA advisors in Langley came up with the ‘good’ Taliban-‘bad’ Taliban theory. The lack of sincerity with which Washington was selling this story was enough for the world to call America’s bluff. What the US forgot was that all cats are grey in the dark.

No sooner had Obama announced the pullout than the attacks on US and NATO troops began to rise. The United Nations, in its quarterly report on Afghanistan, has stated that as of August  2011 the monthly average of attacks is around 2,100, close to 40 per cent more than what it was last year during this period. September has been one of the bloodiest months for the coalition forces. The ground situation is beginning to resemble the 2001 mayhem when coalition forces entered the country. The quality of the lives of Afghans has not dramatically improved in accordance to the money the US has poured into the country. But believe it or not, the worst part is that this is just the tip of the iceberg. 

Islamabad Games

Washington, while going into Afghanistan, joined hands with an old ‘friend’ from the region which had helped the US oust the Russians from Afghanistan. This friend of the US, which it has often in the past pitted against India for geo-strategic reasons, is India’s neighbour to the west — Pakistan. On the outside it looked like the usual American plan — the US has mastered the art of befriending nations in the vicinity of its enemy nation, to provide aid and set up military bases. What they chose to overlook was the ties the Taliban has maintained with Pakistan’s notorious spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Lakhdar Brahimi, former special representative of the United Nations to Afghanistan and Iraq, while characterising the influence of its neighbours on Afghanistan said, “A fly cannot go in unless it stops somewhere; therefore weapons, fuel, food, money will not go to Afghanistan unless the neighbours of Afghanistan are working, are cooperating, either being themselves the origin or the transit.”

Through supporting the Taliban the ISI is creating a conducive environment for it in Afghanistan once the coalition leaves the country. Islamabad has always used Kabul as its backyard for perpetrating terror. And now it will not want to lose this advantage to a ‘liberated’, ‘developing’ Afghanistan, especially one in which India is playing a crucial role.

Last Chance

“As for the United States’ future in Afghanistan, it will be fire and hell and total defeat, God willing, as it was for their predecessors — the Soviets and, before them, the British.”

— Mohammed Omar, Taliban leader in Afghanistan

The regional powers are meeting in Istanbul in November and there is a meeting in Germany in December coinciding with the 10th anniversary of the war in Afghanistan. If international forces make some serious decisions, rather than nodding to the ‘reports of progress’ and ‘plan of action’ set forth by the United States; if the nations wake up to the reality that the time for rapping Pakistan on its knuckles for the double game it is playing is over and concrete action (in the form of sanctions, listing of its terror networks, etc) needs to be taken, then there is hope for a nation which has been at the receiving end of world powers who from the time of The Great Game have been trying to ‘help’ it.

History has an uncanny way of repeating itself and it is up to the international community, especially the United States of America, to see to it that the axiom often associated with Afghanistan — the graveyard of empires — is removed.

(This was published in The New Indian Express on October 13, 2011)