India: The foreign policy for the next government

Among the many challenges that the new government will face, one will definitely be foreign policy. The world is going through testing times: The United States is due to pull its troops out of Afghanistan, Russia’s economic clout is receding, West Asia is in turmoil, and the world economy is still in the doldrums. India’s new foreign policy will have to factor in all these and much more before the government comes up with a viable blueprint.
But, more than the West, the next government’s policy trajectory towards the neighbourhood is what will be crucial. Under the UPA, India has made the right steps towards increasing trade and interactions with China. However, New Delhi should be more flexible towards Chinese investments and use its capabilities on our terms. Visits of mid-level officials between the two countries should be given a fillip. This will help in understanding the neighbour and is an investment for the future. It is the small steps, like meeting the demand for India’s soft power, which are important in the long run. Pakistan will remain a problem with no light at the end of that tunnel. With Raheel Sharif, Pakistan’s army chief, reiterating his PM on Kashmir being a ‘jugular vein’, and various terror groups openly threatening to attack India, New Delhi will have to alert and keep its expectations of peace at a realistic level. The arrest of an alleged ISI agent, by the Tamil Nadu Police on April 29, who has named an official of the Pakistan high commission in Colombo, is yet another clear indication that Islamabad is not letting go of its old ways. On the contrary, it is trying to exploit India’s vast coastline, especially the coastal parts of the South. Coastal security should be boosted and the next government must improve ties with Colombo. India and Sri Lanka need to discuss issues like the arrests of fishermen from Tamil Nadu and the democratic rights of the Lankan Tamils. New Delhi should also remove all fears and misunderstanding about the Sethusamudram Shipping Canal Project and the Kudankulam Nuclear Power project. The next government should not take for granted its goodwill of the administration in Thimpu and should do more to bring stability in Kathmandu. India should also give a more economic thrust to its ties with Myanmar, Maldives and Vietnam.

For long there has been a perception that India’s foreign policy is risk-averse. If India needs to be taken seriously in the comity of nations, this has to change. The next government must come up with a foreign policy that demonstrates a degree of flexibility where required while safeguarding India’s interests.

Bangladesh polls: Sheikh Hasina’s Pyrrhic victory

Khaleda Zia (L) and Sheikh Hasina

One need not be a psephologist to have predicted the poll outcome in Bangladesh’s parliamentary election held on Sunday. With the main opposition party, Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotting the election, it was a foregone conclusion that Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League would win a second term. However, even after bagging more than 230 seats among the 300 in the Jatiyo Shongshod (parliament), it might not be smooth sailing for Ms Hasina. Sunday’s election saw widespread poll-related violence, including the death of 18 people. And with just 22% polling (down from 87% last time) there are concerns about the validity of the process.
History will be at the back of Ms Hasina’s mind when she holds talks with the opposition on future polls. In February 1996, the BNP won a landslide victory after the Awami League boycotted the election. Following massive protests from the Opposition, fresh elections were held in June, in which the Awami League won. For the time being, however, Sheikh Hasina and her party have emerged victorious and this is good news for India — under her rule Dhaka-New Delhi ties have strengthened, especially in boosting trade and tackling terrorism. Early in 2013 Bangladesh had replaced Sri Lanka as India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent. With trade close to $5 billion Bangladesh is an important trading partner for India.

After the general elections this summer, whichever party that forms the government in New Delhi should focus on strengthening ties with Dhaka. Rather than giving too much importance to smoothening ties with Islamabad, with no light at the end of that tunnel, New Delhi should focus on its neighbour on the east. Also, the equation is not gung with Colombo after frequent arrests of fishermen from Tamil Nadu and the picture is not yet clear with a change of government in the Maldives. The Centre should reach an agreement on water-sharing from Teesta River with Bangladesh. This would also go a long way in boosting the image of the Hasina government, which is often criticised by the Opposition for going the extra mile for India when the goodwill has not been reciprocated. Good ties with Dhaka will also help in tackling insurgency and boosting the economy in the Northeast.

Colombo CHOGM: The shadow is bigger than the object

The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), which concluded in Colombo on Sunday, is a good example of a ‘meeting for the sake of meeting’. Mainly a conglomeration of countries that were at some point in history ruled by the British, the Commonwealth has little in common today. The glue that holds the Commonwealth together is the commitment of member nations towards democracy, human rights and rule of law. With many nations criticising Sri Lanka, which hosted the CHOGM, for its human rights abuses and war crimes, the relevance and need for the Commonwealth is being put to question. A usual criticism of the Commonwealth is that it often refuses to take a strong stand against erring nations and this timid approach has eroded its credibility.
That only 27 heads of government attend the Colombo CHOGM shows how the 53-member Commonwealth is battling a split right in the middle. Among the prominent leaders who gave the Meet a miss were Queen Elizabeth II (for the first time in over four decades), Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mauritius Prime Minister Navin Chandra Ramgoolam. While Mr Haprer’s decision came early in October, Mr Singh’s decision was a last minute one, making it clear to world nations that it was a decision based more on politics than on principle.
The Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has said that the Colombo summit has strengthened the organisation and that there was a "reaffirmation of the spirit and willingness of wanting to stay together as a unique collection of nations". The events that unfolded tell another story. Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron’s visit to the Jaffna region and his statement that if progress was not seen before March, he would urge the UN Human Rights Commission for a “full, credible and independent international inquiry” in no uncertain words brought the focus on the Mahinda Rajapaksa government’s human rights record. The objection of Australia and Canada to back a 'Capital Green Fund' for smaller states and struggling African nations to tackle climate change can been seen as a failure of the Colombo CHOGM. The statement released after the Meet stating that the countries agreed to address issues like poverty reduction, trade and youth affairs, among others, pales given enormity and potential the group reflects on paper. Irrespective of the fate of the 2015 CHOGM in Malta, one thing is clear: the Commonwealth today is more a relic of the past than of any significance today.

Sri Lanka: Hope for Lankan Tamils

If Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa thought that the spotlight was no longer on his regime after United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay had raised concerns over the human rights conditions of the Tamils after visiting the country, the Sunday results of to the Northern Provincial Council elections would have been a shocker. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won 30 of the 38 seats in the elections sending a clear message to Colombo, and the world, that it was time for giving more regional autonomy to the northern areas. The ruling United Progressive Front Alliance managed to secure just seven seats, while the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress won the remaining one seat.
 The Sunday results are perhaps the worst electoral defeat for Mr Rajapaksa after his government came to power in 2005. Last month Ms Pillay visited Sri Lanka and did not mince her words in expressing her disappointment at the progress the Rajapaksa government had made in integrating the Lankan Tamils in the north of the country even four years after the bloody civil war came to an end. The election results underline her observations.

The results have placed a lot of challenges in front of CV Wigneswaran, the retired Supreme Court judge and TNA leader who is the frontrunner for the post of the chief minister of the province. The high voter turnout and the overwhelming majority the TNA has received is also a sign that the people are not happy with the measures the government has taken in the past four years to improve their lives. Mr Wigneswaran’s view that the TNA is willing to work with Colombo within a united Sri Lanka is proof that he has not been swayed by the views of nationalist groups, especially the Tamil diaspora, that is rooting for a separate state. The TNA has said that it will work for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment of the Constitution and will push for meaningful devolution. It is to be seen how much Colombo will be willing to cooperate on this issue. The people have reposed their faith in democracy. Now, it is for both the TNA and the Rajapaksa government to not disappoint them.