Bangladesh polls: Sheikh Hasina’s Pyrrhic victory

Khaleda Zia (L) and Sheikh Hasina

One need not be a psephologist to have predicted the poll outcome in Bangladesh’s parliamentary election held on Sunday. With the main opposition party, Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotting the election, it was a foregone conclusion that Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League would win a second term. However, even after bagging more than 230 seats among the 300 in the Jatiyo Shongshod (parliament), it might not be smooth sailing for Ms Hasina. Sunday’s election saw widespread poll-related violence, including the death of 18 people. And with just 22% polling (down from 87% last time) there are concerns about the validity of the process.
History will be at the back of Ms Hasina’s mind when she holds talks with the opposition on future polls. In February 1996, the BNP won a landslide victory after the Awami League boycotted the election. Following massive protests from the Opposition, fresh elections were held in June, in which the Awami League won. For the time being, however, Sheikh Hasina and her party have emerged victorious and this is good news for India — under her rule Dhaka-New Delhi ties have strengthened, especially in boosting trade and tackling terrorism. Early in 2013 Bangladesh had replaced Sri Lanka as India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent. With trade close to $5 billion Bangladesh is an important trading partner for India.

After the general elections this summer, whichever party that forms the government in New Delhi should focus on strengthening ties with Dhaka. Rather than giving too much importance to smoothening ties with Islamabad, with no light at the end of that tunnel, New Delhi should focus on its neighbour on the east. Also, the equation is not gung with Colombo after frequent arrests of fishermen from Tamil Nadu and the picture is not yet clear with a change of government in the Maldives. The Centre should reach an agreement on water-sharing from Teesta River with Bangladesh. This would also go a long way in boosting the image of the Hasina government, which is often criticised by the Opposition for going the extra mile for India when the goodwill has not been reciprocated. Good ties with Dhaka will also help in tackling insurgency and boosting the economy in the Northeast.

Opinion Polls: Congress should not sulk, BJP cannot gloat

The Election Commission of India’s (ECI) suggestion to put a lid on pre-poll surveys has found support from unexpected quarters with the Congress endorsing the commission’s views. Stating that they are not ‘scientific’ and are not conducted in a ‘transparent manner’ the grand old party has written to the ECI, which had asked various political parties to submit their views on banning such polls. The Congress’ dislike for opinion polls is understandable. After all, in most of the polls that have been released, the party is forecast to take a beating in the upcoming state elections. In Delhi, a state-union territory the Congress has been in power for three consecutive terms, an opinion poll shows the party trailing behind. The results are not encouraging in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh either. 
Psephology is a science that analysis political results. Depending on region, society and various other factors psephologists more often than not are able to reflect the sentiments of the electorate before voting day. Many democracies around the world also have opinion polls. Nathaniel Read ‘Nate’ Silver, the famous American sabermetricist (Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball statistics) and psephologist, has been successfully forecasting the career of major baseball players and forecasted correctly 49 of the 50 state winners in the 2008 presidential elections. Such popular was Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog the New York Times licensed its publication in 2010. In 2012, Silver forecasted the winner in all the 50 states. Opinion polls and pre-poll surveys help in gauging the public mood. While there might be room for doubting the neutrality and objectivity of an opinion poll, it should be remembered that these surveys are not oracular prophesies. Nor are they edicts carved on stone and remain unchanged. Depending on various factors they can change proving these surveys wrong. At present exit polls are banned and there is a ban on opinion polls 48 hours before the day of election.
The Congress will do well to remember Sophocles in Antigone: "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news". Rather than taking objection to opinion polls, the Congress should look at it as a harbinger and realise that there is still time for course correction before the general elections in 2014.