Govt must rethink its Maoist strategy

They have been lying low for a while. But when the Maoists struck again, it was with venomous fury, killing 14 CRPF personnel and injuring more than 15 at Sukma in Chhattisgarh. This shows that the Maoist threat is clear and present. It was only the other day that Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh had said that the Maoists ‘would soon be finished’.
Monday’s attack was the second ambush in the area in the past 10 days and contrary to the government’s view the insurgents seem to be growing in confidence. In the last two years more than 70 people have been killed in Maoist ambushes, including the May 2013 attack in Bastar that killed 25 state Congress leaders.
This attack comes at a time when there are reports that the Intelligence Bureau and the CRPF are at loggerheads over a botched-up operation to nab a top Maoist leader in early November.
Clearly, there seems to be a lack of communication among various government departments and the attack in Sukma, which shares its border with Odisha and Telangana, shows that when it comes to inter-state co-operation there are far too many loopholes.
Incidentally, on Friday, the Raman Singh-led BJP government will be completing 11 years in power in the state. The BJP came to power at the Centre and many states promising development and ‘achhe din’, but there are still development lacunae in the state that are exploited by the Maoists.
According to the ‘India Human Development Report 2011’, by the Planning Commission, Chhattisgarh’s Human Development Index was 0.278, which was the lowest in India and below the national average of 0.467. According to the Tendulkar Committee Report 2009, almost 70% of the state’s population is poor. It is this deprivation and neglect by the state that the Maoists thrive on.
The Sukma attack yet again proves that the Maoists are India’s ‘biggest internal security threat’ but to rely heavily on force to ‘smoke them out’ is not the best solution. There is a need for a policy mix that entails a demonstrable improvement in state capacity aligned with a vigorous push for inclusive development in Maoist-affected areas.

Opinion Polls: Congress should not sulk, BJP cannot gloat

The Election Commission of India’s (ECI) suggestion to put a lid on pre-poll surveys has found support from unexpected quarters with the Congress endorsing the commission’s views. Stating that they are not ‘scientific’ and are not conducted in a ‘transparent manner’ the grand old party has written to the ECI, which had asked various political parties to submit their views on banning such polls. The Congress’ dislike for opinion polls is understandable. After all, in most of the polls that have been released, the party is forecast to take a beating in the upcoming state elections. In Delhi, a state-union territory the Congress has been in power for three consecutive terms, an opinion poll shows the party trailing behind. The results are not encouraging in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh either. 
Psephology is a science that analysis political results. Depending on region, society and various other factors psephologists more often than not are able to reflect the sentiments of the electorate before voting day. Many democracies around the world also have opinion polls. Nathaniel Read ‘Nate’ Silver, the famous American sabermetricist (Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball statistics) and psephologist, has been successfully forecasting the career of major baseball players and forecasted correctly 49 of the 50 state winners in the 2008 presidential elections. Such popular was Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog the New York Times licensed its publication in 2010. In 2012, Silver forecasted the winner in all the 50 states. Opinion polls and pre-poll surveys help in gauging the public mood. While there might be room for doubting the neutrality and objectivity of an opinion poll, it should be remembered that these surveys are not oracular prophesies. Nor are they edicts carved on stone and remain unchanged. Depending on various factors they can change proving these surveys wrong. At present exit polls are banned and there is a ban on opinion polls 48 hours before the day of election.
The Congress will do well to remember Sophocles in Antigone: "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news". Rather than taking objection to opinion polls, the Congress should look at it as a harbinger and realise that there is still time for course correction before the general elections in 2014.