Opinion Polls: Congress should not sulk, BJP cannot gloat

The Election Commission of India’s (ECI) suggestion to put a lid on pre-poll surveys has found support from unexpected quarters with the Congress endorsing the commission’s views. Stating that they are not ‘scientific’ and are not conducted in a ‘transparent manner’ the grand old party has written to the ECI, which had asked various political parties to submit their views on banning such polls. The Congress’ dislike for opinion polls is understandable. After all, in most of the polls that have been released, the party is forecast to take a beating in the upcoming state elections. In Delhi, a state-union territory the Congress has been in power for three consecutive terms, an opinion poll shows the party trailing behind. The results are not encouraging in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh either. 
Psephology is a science that analysis political results. Depending on region, society and various other factors psephologists more often than not are able to reflect the sentiments of the electorate before voting day. Many democracies around the world also have opinion polls. Nathaniel Read ‘Nate’ Silver, the famous American sabermetricist (Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball statistics) and psephologist, has been successfully forecasting the career of major baseball players and forecasted correctly 49 of the 50 state winners in the 2008 presidential elections. Such popular was Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog the New York Times licensed its publication in 2010. In 2012, Silver forecasted the winner in all the 50 states. Opinion polls and pre-poll surveys help in gauging the public mood. While there might be room for doubting the neutrality and objectivity of an opinion poll, it should be remembered that these surveys are not oracular prophesies. Nor are they edicts carved on stone and remain unchanged. Depending on various factors they can change proving these surveys wrong. At present exit polls are banned and there is a ban on opinion polls 48 hours before the day of election.
The Congress will do well to remember Sophocles in Antigone: "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news". Rather than taking objection to opinion polls, the Congress should look at it as a harbinger and realise that there is still time for course correction before the general elections in 2014.

Twitter and Facebook are taken Awfully Serious

Two recent news items point to a disturbing trend where the Internet — social networking sites to be precise — was used to abet crimes. The first one was of a man selling off his grandchild to a businessman in Delhi for Rs8 lakh after striking a deal using facebook. The other was how the Dow Jones fell by 143 points after hackers sent a message — ‘Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is injured’ — from the Twitter handle of a news organisation. The Syrian Electronic Army, which had hacked Reuters feed last year, took credit. Social networking sites, to use a popular phrase, have made the world smaller, much smaller, and have connected millions of people like never before. However, its dark underbelly has more dangerous potent and governments around the world have not been able to control its negative effects.
China, despite it denying any part in it, has been notorious for its cyber attacks on countries and organisations that have spoken against its interests. A recent example of Beijing’s use of cyber space to stymie unpalatable views was the attack on the New York Times’ website after it ran a feature exposing former premier Wen Jiabao wealth. Many countries, including India, have been victims of Chinese hackers. Al-qaeda has been using the Internet, especially video-sharing platforms and social networking sites, for propaganda and recruitment. Instances like this pose the question whether enough is being done to check the side of this virtual world?
To think that a single tweet can affect international markets and in other cases escalate tension between two nations is spine-chilling. Does this mean that the government should roll down the shutters on social networking sites? Definitely not. Real-time censoring of Internet traffic, given the volume (which is only going to increase), is unthinkable. Governments, especially in India, should, through its various wings, create more Internet awareness and give cyber monitoring cells in the police and other agencies a fillip. Internet and social networking sites are here to stay and evolve; shying away from them or banning them will be counterproductive. Governments need to device innovative ways to reap the benefits these Janus-headed platforms throw up. It should be one step ahead of forces that exploit these platforms for nefarious purposes.
(An edited version of this appeared in the Hindustan Times on April 25)