A 'Modi Wave' and the Muslim vote could stop Jayalalithaa's Delhi dreams

In Tamil Nadu, religion has seldom been a poll issue. Caste-based issues, regional and linguistic hegemony (the anti-Hindi agitations), the Lankan Tamil issue, water-sharing disputes (be it the Cauvery River problem with Karnataka or the Mullaiperiyar Dam row with Kerala), have dominated the Tamil Nadu political-scape for decades now. Another reason is the dominance of Dravidian parties, which in principle aim for social reforms through ending religious beliefs.
However, in this election things have changed with the BJP forming a five-party alliance in the state. Though in the past the BJP has contested from various seats in Tamil Nadu, it is for the first time that the national party has headed an alliance in the state. The NDA along with the Congress and AAP — both the parties are fighting the election alone in the state — has made the contest multi-cornered in many of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.

J Jayalalithaa with Narendra Modi (File photo)

The telling presence of the BJP in the state has made religion an important poll issue. The NDA has given the BJP a presence in the state like never before. There is a palpable ‘Modi Wave’ in the state. It is not clear if this ‘wave’ will help the BJP win a number of seats but it is likely to adversely affect the AIADMK in mainly two ways. First, traditionally, the upper caste Hindu votes have gone to the AIADMK. With the BJP in the poll scene, these votes are likely to split.
Second, it is likely that many of the voters apprehensive of the BJP and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi have voted against the AIADMK, fearing that the party will support the BJP at the Centre in a post-poll alliance.
A BJP campaign, led by Modi, has brought into focus the Muslim community. There are about 4.5 million Muslims in the state or 6% of the state population. In an election where the margins are slender, 6% cannot be ignored. This has seen many regional parties wooing the community.
However, the disillusionment among the Muslims, especially the youth, with many regional parties is an important issue. “The bulk of Muslims have been with the DMK since the 1960s. But, the younger lot of Muslims are increasingly moving towards the Tamil Nadu Muslim Munnetra Kazagham and Tamil Nadu Tauheed Jamaat,” says S Anwar, a film-maker who has documented the history of ‘Muslims of Madras from 1600 to 2000 CE’ for the Madras Gazetteer Project. The inability to win the confidence of this section will prove crucial for the parties.

KM Khader Mohideen, president of the Tamil Nadu State
Indian Union Muslim League with DMK chief M Karunanidhi
(File photo by The Hindu)

The Muslims are unlikely to turn towards the Congress because of an anti-incumbency wave and it does not have a commanding presence in the state. AAP would like to believe its stand against corruption and the fact that a sizeable number of its 434 candidates all over India are Muslims may act in its favour. But AAP has failed to create a buzz in Tamil Nadu.
In such a scenario, it is the DMK, AIADMK’s arch-rival, which will benefit. The corruption charges against some of its leaders and the Alagiri-Stalin sibling rivalry is not likely to have an impact. Also, its vote base remains largely intact.
Though the AIADMK was leading in opinion polls initially, towards the final days before polling, the DMK witnessed a surge in its favour. A similar pattern was witnessed in 2009 — the AIADMK was expected to win a large number of seats but the DMK alliance surprised pollsters by winning 27 seats. In 16 days it will be clear how much of an impact the BJP-led alliance has made in Tamil Nadu. It will be clear how the Muslims has responded to the ‘Modi Wave’, and, most importantly, how these developments have affected J Jayalalithaa’s ambitions of playing a crucial role in government formation at the Centre.
(This appeared in the Hindustan Times on April 30, 2014)

Is NaMo reaching out to the Muslims? Not in Uttar Pradesh

Rajnath Singh (left) and Narendra Modi

The importance of Uttar Pradesh in India’s electoral politics needs no elaboration. With 80 Lok Sabha seats, no party that wants to form a government at the Centre can ignore the state. Elections over the decades, with a few exceptions, have shown that the party which wins UP either forms the government at the Centre or becomes a major ally in a coalition running the government in New Delhi. Another reason that keeps UP in the spotlight is that it is home to many high-profile constituencies, like Rae Bareli, Amethi, Varanasi, Lucknow, etc. Varanasi, in UP, will probably be the most-talked about constituency as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal are contesting from here. That Mr Modi chose Varanasi as one of the two seats he is contesting from reflects the state’s importance to the BJP.

Narendra Modi with Muslim leaders

With Muslims forming about 18% of the state’s population, their importance cannot be overlooked. Given this, it is surprising that of the 75 candidates the BJP has announced in UP, there is not even one candidate from the Muslim community. On the face of it an analysis on religious lines is not always the right approach, but, for a party that is claiming to be more ‘inclusive’ and keeping a distance from the hardline Hindutva it has been associated with, this void is glaring. The BJP, especially under Mr Modi, has made an effort — or it seems — to reach out to the Muslim community. Party president Rajnath Singh’s “try us once…” comment was widely perceived as an effort to bring the minority community closer to the BJP and thereby boost its chances in the elections. The party was quick to clarify that Mr Singh’s comment was not an apology for the 2002 riots in Gujarat, but an assurance that it will not shy away from apologising for any future mistake. Its list of candidates from UP, however, tell a different story.
The BJP is counting on the upper caste votes and is building on the support of the OBCs. Back-of-the-envelope estimates predict around 40 seats for the party in the state. In the state’s crowded electoral pool this is a commanding figure. But the party will have to put its money where its mouth is. This also gives other parties, especially the Congress that has fielded 11 Muslims from the state, a stick to beat the BJP. This is a criticism the BJP cannot wish away.

Protest benefits: AAP's idea to reward lawbreakers is bad

Shocking decision

Break the law and we will reward you — this seems to be the message from the AAP government in Delhi to the people. Its decision to foot 50% of the electricity bills of consumers who defaulted on their payment between October 2012 and December 2013 and to waive any penalty on these bills is unviable at best and unfair at worst. The government has identified 24,036 such defaulters who will be rewarded and this move will cost the state exchequer `6 crore. The Arvind Kejriwal government has already subsidised water and electricity tariffs at a cost of `200 crore. Cabinet minister Manish Sisodia’s statement that “the people who supported us during the andolan….should benefit now” puts the government’s move in perspective — `6 crore of the taxpayers’ money is being used to ‘benefit’ a few party supporters.
In Indian politics there is nothing new in a political party or government announcing sops in the hope that the intended group of beneficiaries would vote for the party. From cycles, televisions, mixies to laptops and even regularisation of illegal settlements, political parties, both at the central and state level, have tried to outdo the other. However, AAP’s move takes populism to a new level.
The AAP government in Delhi is in a tearing hurry, and in eagerness to sprint ahead it does not seem to ponder too much about the consequences of the statements and decisions it is taking. The subsidy can only be seen as a move to ‘reward’ those who stood by the party in its ‘bijli-paani andolan’ days. It sends out a covert message to AAP supporters that ‘if you stick by the party in all its decisions, you will be rewarded’. This move mocks the consumers who stuck to the law and did not heed Mr Kejriwal’s call to default on bill payments. This also sends out a wrong message to political parties like the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, which is on a protest against toll taxes in Maharashtra, that they can break the law and also to the people that if they go against the law they will be rewarded, not punished.

AAP vs Delhi Police: Kejriwal defends the indefensible and stoops to 'politics'

No one expected AAP to have a smooth ride, but no one quite expected its ministers to turn out to be its worst enemies. Faced with growing internal spats, with MLA Vinod Kumar Binny accusing the government of moving away from the party’s goals and members like Captain Gopinath and Mallika Sarabhai questioning the government’s actions, it now has added problems. Last week, Delhi law minister Somnath Bharti, along with a few volunteers, demanded that the police raid a house in South Delhi saying that he had information that the foreign nationals — from ‘Nigeria or Uganda’ according to Mr Bharti — living there were pushing drugs and running a prostitution racket. According to media reports, two women were forced to undergo medical examination in the night. It seemed to have slipped Bharti’s mind that it is illegal for the police to raid a place without a search warrant and as per the Code of Criminal Procedure the police cannot take action against women after sunset. On the same day, women and child welfare minister Rakhi Birla accused the police of shielding suspects in a dowry harassment case.
The Delhi Police ‘refusing’ to co-operate with the state government, as pointed out by Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in a press conference on Thursday, points to a larger issue of who controls the police control and police reforms that needs to be addressed on a policy level, and not on the streets of Delhi in the night by people who are not authorized to do so. The irony in Kejriwal’s statement “We warn the Delhi Police to mend their ways….the police are only shying away from their duty” cannot be missed as it was the same AAP, under Kejriwal’s leadership, which attacked then CM Sheila Dikshit when, after the December 16 gang rape, she said that her government had no control over the Delhi Police which comes under the Union home ministry. Kejriwal holding dharnas till the cops who did not comply by the ministers’ orders are suspended will not improve the security situation in the capital.
 Many of the government’s actions seem to show that AAP is yet to move from an activism mode to understanding the intricacies of running a government. The people have reposed great faith and hope in AAP and are ready to give it a very long rope. This is all the more a reason for AAP to be extra cautious before resorting to insensitive statements and acts of vigilantism.

Right-wing violence greets AAP at its Kaushambi office

That violence has no place in a democracy is a point no matter how many times it is repeated it will miss certain groups who refuse to respect a difference of opinion or are ready for a healthy debate. In what can be seen as only an intolerant act, 30-40 people attacked the headquarters of AAP in Ghaziabad. The attackers, many of whom belong to a right-wing group called Hindu Raksha Dal, said that they were protesting against AAP leader Prashant Bhushan’s comment that a referendum should be carried out in Kashmir to decide if the Army be deployed in the Valley.
The AAP leader said that his statement was misconstrued and the party has distanced itself from Bhushan’s statement. Lumpen groups — who have a construed a narrow view about Indian culture and claim to protect it — seem to forget that Article 19 of the Constitution guarantees the right for a person to hold and express his/her view — even if it is contrarian to popular perception. Unfortunately, such acts of vigilantism are not a new phenomenon, but are the preferred route of many organisations that are high on chest-thumping empty rhetoric and low on credibility: The Sri Rama Sena’s morale policing of couples on Valentine’s Day in Mangalore in 2009, the ransacking of the Bhandarkar Oriental Research Institute in Pune by over 100 protesters from the Sambhaji Brigade of the Maratha Seva Sangh for hurting the sentiments of Maratha people in 2004, the Shiv Sena protesting and banning Rohinton Mistry’s book from the Mumbai University curriculum claiming that it contained derogatory remarks about Maharashtrians in 2010, the examples are many.

There is little doubt that the lack of tough and visible action against mobsters during previous attacks has emboldened fringe groups, like the Hindu Raksha Dal, to act in such a brazen manner. This is evident in the fact that one of the persons behind the attack on Wednesday has been linked to the 2011 attack on Bhushan in his chamber in the Supreme Court. Confident that the long arm of the law will not catch them, they enjoy their 15 minutes of fame. However, there should be no two ways while addressing such lawlessness. No political sanction for such actions can be justified and the attack has been rightly condemned by many parties. Political parties and organisation must realise that gone are the days when such acts could gain them political mileage. Such destruction is only proof that some are still caught in the past. Today, the people want development and accountability. Perhaps it is time to ensure that people or organisations are made to pay for the destruction they cause while protesting in addition to other legal action.