Jayalalithaa in jail: Panneerselvam should now work for Tamil Nadu

For her emotionally overwrought followers, this is the worst possible news. On Tuesday the Karnataka High Court rejected AIADMK leader and former Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa’s bail plea in connection to a `66.65 crore disproportionate assets case. In the past 10 days that Jayalalithaa has been in jail Tamil Nadu has witnessed the most sycophantic outpourings of love for her. The AIADMK cadre has held protests — from hunger strikes to ‘Mannu Soru’ (eating food from the ground) to human chains — have disrupted public life and even destroyed public property. The fact that the court has come to its conclusion after having examined all the evidence seems lost on Amma’s followers. Tamil Nadu is no stranger to over-the-top displays of love and admiration for its leaders. In 1987, when then CM MG Ramachandran died, around 30 people committed suicide. But the current protests are not going to produce any favourable result as the court is not going to take notice of the antics of the followers. The protesters who are demanding her release and saying that the case is politically motivated are doing a singular disservice to the judiciary, which has acted without fear or favour.

Jayalalithaa (left), Sasikala and O Panneerselvam (File Frontline photo)

Even if we were to pass off the people’s protests as ‘spontaneous’ reactions of affection for Amma, there is no excuse for the way the state government is handling the situation. Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, after taking office, has done precious little to bring any semblance of normalcy to the state. While he is in Chennai many of his Cabinet colleagues are in Bangalore. An elected government has a duty to discharge its duties, not be in mourning for a leader who has been found guilty of corruption.  The state machinery is being subtly used to provoke reactions — like the move by a group of educational institutions to remain closed on Tuesday to show solidarity with Amma. Reacting to a PIL, the Madras High Court ordered that all schools and colleges must remain open, a damning indictment of the administration’s failure. Posters threatening to hold Kannadigas hostage if Amma is not released show how the police’s soft approach to protests has encouraged these people. That these posters had the names of various AIADMK leaders will only egg these protestors on.
There are pressing concerns that the state administration has to address — like the looming power crisis. If Mr Panneerselvam and the AIADMK are not able to run the government without its leader, maybe they should approach the governor, because the state cannot come to a standstill just because its leaders are overcome by emotion.

Jayalalithaa in jail: How does this change politics in Tamil Nadu

It has stretched for 18 long years. It has been tried in two states. And now, the long arm of the law has closed in on AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa. She has been convicted in the long-pending  disproportionate assets case, sentenced for four years and fined a staggering `100 crore. The special court in Bangalore also convicted Jayalalithaa’s close aide Sasikala Natarajan, her niece Illavarasi and her nephew and Jayalalithaa’s disowned foster son Sudhakaran. With the conviction, Amma, as her supporters call her, becomes the first chief minister to be convicted under the Prevention of Corruption Act. She may be out of the electoral reckoning for a good long time, though she has been known to roar back on many an occasion.  
How will this verdict change — if at all it does — the political landscape of Tamil Nadu? Her party, the AIADMK, will surely take a beating and this is a shot in the arm for rival political parties. But this does not mean that there will be a political vacuum in the state. It will take some deft footwork by both regional and national parties to cash in on last week’s conviction. However, none seem to have their house in order in the state. Though the DMK has moved past the sibling rivalry phase that at one point seemed to hobble the  party, it is yet to recover from the drubbing it received in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP and the Congress are yet to find their feet in Dravidian politics. DMDK chief Vijayakanth will benefit to an extent but it remains to be seen if he can convert that advantage into seats in the assembly. The DMK stands to gain the most but it has many hurdles to overcome.
Finance minister O Panneerselvam who replaces Jayalalithaa as chief minister can be expected to continue Amma’s policies and, in all likelihood, take dictation from Poes Garden. In 2001, when she had to step down, it was O Panneerselvam again who was appointed Tamil Nadu chief minister. There is no second-rung leadership in the party, it is Amma all the way. In the short-run, this will help her, but it could weaken the party in the long-run. But the conviction sends out a clear message: No one is above the law, not even the Empress of Poes Garden who has in recent times seemed invincible.

India sent its MOM to Mars and is proud of it

PM Narendra Modi with Isro chief Radhakrishnan

The sky really seemed the limit on Wednesday morning as the Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) spacecraft entered Mars’ orbit and into Indian space history. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while congratulating the scientists at the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro), rightly noted that we have achieved “the near impossible”. Given the technological limitations and financial constraints, the Mangalyaan, or the Mars mission, is unique in many ways. On a shoe-string budget of Rs. 450 crore, it is an indigenous programme completed for launch in less than two years. This is much quicker and less expensive than any other Mars mission.
Only a handful of countries have been able to cross this frontier of interplanetary exploration, and India’s entry into this elite club comprising the United States, Russia and Europe is amazing. The space exploration arena is getting crowded and it is important to be ahead of your competition. India, by becoming the first Asian country to launch a successful Mars mission, has taken the wind out of the sails of nations like China, Japan and South Korea which have ambitious space programmes planned.
Isro’s Mars mission is predominantly a technology demonstrator. The success of MOM shows that India has the potential for deep space remote controlling and communication and navigation. The MOM — which will orbit Mars for six months — is also carrying scientific equipment and will study the planet’s surface and atmosphere, especially the presence of methane gas.

Scientist working on MOM

Mangalyaan’s success is also expected to increase India’s launch capabilities. Isro has successfully combined state-of-the-art technology and frugal engineering thereby setting the benchmark  for future interplanetary missions by any country/agency. While the mission is a major achievement, there are areas where Isro has to focus. At present, it is only capable of launching payloads below two tonnes. The government must encourage science education by investing more in research and development in schools and universities.
As former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, under whom Mangalyaan was approved, said during the 101st Indian Science Congress: “Science education in our country requires much more attention…. We must increase our annual expenditure on science and technology to at least 2% of our GDP.” However, for the moment, let’s bask in our moment in the sun, or shall we say stars?

A united West Asia to fight ISIS: It's easier said than done

The Islamic State (ISIS), by beheading two American citizens, has drawn international attention and has made US President Barack Obama send American troops as military advisers to Iraq. In his speech last week, Mr Obama stressed the need for a coalition of countries to tackle ISIS. Britain has decided not to be directly involved but France and Australia have extended support. US secretary of state John Kerry is in West Asia, stitching together a coalition of regional players. Several Arab countries have reportedly reciprocated, expressing willingness to join in airstrikes on ISIS. The details are yet unclear, but forging a grand coalition amid the complex politics of West Asia is easier said than done.

John Kerry with Arab leaders after the Jeddah meet on ISIS

The role of Arab governments, especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, in the growth of ISIS is well known. So why would they now want to destroy ISIS? The rise of ISIS, a Sunni terror group, which targeted Shias and other minorities, was acceptable  — even desirable — for Sunni kingdoms in West Asia. For them ISIS’ anti-Shia drive meant the ultimate weakening of Iran, the Shia heavyweight in West Asia. However, the equation changed the moment ISIS revealed its grand plans for an Islamic caliphate. Put differently, the snakes in the backyard have turned homeward. Also many countries fear that their local Sunni population might get influenced by ISIS. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and others put their forces on alert in July since the caliphate was declared.
The US does not want Iran and Syria to be part of the coalition, thereby making it a largely Sunni group. Turkey’s reluctance to join the coalition also weakens the drive against ISIS. Ankara is wary of the Kurdish resistance in the country and 49 Turkish diplomats are in ISIS’ custody. But it shares a 1,200-km-long border with Iraq and Syria and can choke ISIS by tightening its border and stopping the flow of oil from ISIS-controlled areas. It needs to be seen how much the US and its allies will be willing to attack ISIS in Syria without aiding the Bashar al-Assad government. The regional coalition should also check terror groups in, say, Libya, Egypt, etc. Focusing solely on ISIS and leaving other groups is half the job done. ISIS, through its call for an Islamic caliphate, is hoping to rekindle the passion for Arab nationalism. More importantly, it wants West Asia to unite and oppose Western powers that have ‘subjugated’ the region for more than two centuries. Given this, there is a grain of truth when Mr Obama said that “…this is not our fight alone” and “nor can we take the place of Arab partners in securing the region”. The success of the coalition depends on a united West Asia that overlooks sectarian and national differences. Unless the Arab nations take up the fight, the attack on ISIS will be viewed as Western propaganda against Islam and the region — and ISIS will continue to terrorise the world.

ISIS: Is Obama doing the same mistake Bush did in West Asia?

                                   Barack Obama                Pic: Telegraph

US President Barack Obama’s strategy, which he unveiled on Wednesday, against the Islamic State (ISIS), had the stench of a stale dish. Only a week ago when he was asked about the US’ strategy on ISIS, Obama said: “We don’t have a strategy yet.” He was criticised for this response and Wednesday’s speech was expected to minimise that damage. The US president’s plan involves attacking the ISIS in Iraq and Syria, increasing assistance and training for all forces fighting ISIS (except the Bashar al-Assad government), cutting off the funding and recruitment channels for the terror group and continuing humanitarian assistance to those affected.
Obama has done the right thing — though late in the day — in deciding to pursue the ISIS “wherever they are”, but his strategy leaves many questions unanswered. There is no clarity on the specific roles of the US’ coalition partners. There is no stipulated timeframe— experts estimate will take two to three years to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the ISIS.
After the 9/11 attacks, Washington was quick to respond, first by invading Afghanistan and later Iraq. As The New York Times’ Carlotta Gall in The Wrong Enemy: America in Afghanistan, 2001-2014 writes: “…by going to war in 2001, the United States was walking into the Islamists’ trap. It was just what al Qaeda wanted: for Afghanistan to serve again as a battleground for Muslim fighters against a superpower”. Is the US repeating the same mistake and walking into an ISIS trap?
While speaking about sending troops to the region, Obama said: “…American forces will not have a combat mission — we will not get dragged into another ground war in Iraq.” The usage of the word “dragged” gives the impression that in 2003 the US was forced to invade Iraq. This is not true.
The US invaded Iraq in search of fictitious weapons of mass destruction and left an ineffective ‘democratic’ government, headed by Nouri al-Maliki. Not only did Maliki favour Shias but he also cracked down on protests and alienated the Sunnis. Chelsea Manning, former US army intelligence analyst, recently said the US did nothing to stop the “brutal crackdown against political dissidents by the Iraqi Ministry of Interior and federal police”. This prepared a fertile ground for al Qaeda to recruit and build its network in Iraq.

                                                                                                     Pic: CBS News

Nothing explains Obama’s dilemma better than the crisis in Syria. Since pro-democracy protests broke out in 2011, the US has been trying to overthrow the Bashar al-Assad government. The US and its allies in the region have been aiding various rebel groups and the Central Intelligence Agency has been running training camps in Jordan for the Free Syrian Army, which is fighting against Assad. If ISIS bases are attacked in Syria, Washington will be indirectly helping Damascus, thereby strengthening Assad. It would be interesting to see how Obama plans to weaken the ISIS in Syria and at the same time not give Assad an advantage.
The plan to train and aid rebels is a myopic one — and Obama should know it. In July, the Pentagon said that it was difficult to identify ‘moderate rebels’ and train them against Assad. The rebels are an amorphous group of fighters, many of whom are pro-al Qaeda. Obama’s idea of picking the best among the worst is similar to America’s perception of the ‘moderate’ Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
After the hasty retreat from Iraq and setting a deadline for pulling out of Afghanistan, Obama had shown an obdurate reluctance to intervene in foreign conflicts. Obama, especially in the second term, has focused on internal matters, leaving foreign policy to his secretary of state, John Kerry. Obama’s foreign policy arc has been so limited that suddenly Sarah Palin’s “they’re our next door neighbours” comment on Russia looks brighter.
Obama’s speech came on the eve of the 13th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks and if the US is at the drawing board, chalking out plans after more than a decade in the region, one would at least expect Washington not to repeat past mistakes. However, Obama’s move to aid rebels sounds more like his predecessor George W Bush’s ‘War on Terror’. And that’s not good news.
(This appeared as an article in the Hindustan Times on September 12)

Andhra Pradesh: The dangers in Vijayawada being the state capital

N Chandrababu Naidu

Vijayawada will be the new capital of Andhra Pradesh. Chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu has conveniently ignored the Centre-appointed Sivaramakrishnan committee report while naming the city on the banks of the Krishna river in his haste to get things moving in his state. The report gives three options for a capital city which are well worth considering.

Mr Naidu has, however, agreed to the committee’s suggestion to decentralise power. His political opponents have raised the fact that Mr Naidu chose Vijayawada as it has a powerful Kamma presence — a community that has traditionally backed the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). That notwithstanding, Mr Naidu’s choice also seems to have miffed the people of the Rayalaseema region, with reports that even ministers from the region were unhappy with the choice. It is now up to the CM to ensure that the people of Rayalaseema do not feel alienated and that the new capital will also help in culturally unifying the whole state.

One of the major criticisms against choosing Vijayawada was the lack of government land. Right from the time of the bifurcation, following speculation, the Vijayawada-Guntur corridor saw a real estate boom and now the government will have to buy land at a premium. The Sivaramakrishnan committee report suggests that only a quarter of the estimated `4.5 lakh crore required for the new state capital will come from the Centre.

The state will have to raise the remaining amount and in such a scenario purchasing private land at exorbitant prices will put pressure on the state exchequer. Another area of concern, which was also raised in the report, was that large areas of fertile agricultural land in and around the Vijayawada-Guntur delta region will have to be acquired. This will impact the food security of the state and will likely displace a large number of farmers. This is cause for concern in a state where about 52% of the total workforce is employed in agriculture and related services. The environmental impact real estate expansion will have on the Krishna river and its adjoining area cannot be ignored. This gains significance in view of reports that the CM is keen to have key government offices near Amaravati, a historical town situated on the river bank.

Mr Naidu, like his Telangana counterpart K Chandrashekar Rao, has a golden opportunity to build a model state and not just a capital. In his previous tenure as CM of undivided Andhra Pradesh Mr Naidu focused extensively on building urban assets — he was instrumental in transforming Hyderabad into an IT hub in the country — but was criticised for ignoring development in the rural areas. He must not repeat this mistake with Vijayawada.

Gaza attack: World nations watch as Israel 'wins'

                                                                                                                Pic: WSJ

The scoreline says it all: 1814-67. Israel 'won', Palestine battered black and blue. This latest round of Israel-Palestine conflict started with the abduction and killing of three Israeli youth in June 30. Israel began a manhunt for the people behind the killing and started bombing what it called 'Hamas targets'. On July 17, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) invaded Gaza and on August 5 withdrew its forces. On Friday, hours before a 72-hour ceasefire was to end, two rockets were fired into Israel by militants from Gaza. Hamas has denied firing the rockets. The Cairo-brokered ceasefire was has come to an end with Israel and the Hamas not reaching an agreement.

After nearly 30 days of violence more than 1,814 Palestinians, mostly innocent civilians, have been killed. On Israel's side, it lost 64 army personnel and three civilians. That's roughly 27 Palestinian lives for every loss Israel suffered.

For those who enjoy the spectacle of warfare this is how comfortable it gets. A news report that is widely circulated and called the 'Sderot Cinema' shows how Israeli residents climb a hillock, sit on chairs and cheer as bombs fall on Gaza. For those who are shaken by its horrors, this is what 21st century massacres look like.

While Israel is guilty of using disproportionate force, Hamas cannot escape blame. Its use of human shields, keeping weapons in schools and firing rockets from densely populated civilian areas has jeopardised the safety and security of Palestinians — who the organisation claims to serve and protect.

Guilty of complacence

World nations have expressed grief at the events and have asked for peace to prevail but have stopped short of condemning Israel for its attack on innocent civilians (however, many nations have condemned the Hamas for its atrocities).

The United States has always showed unwavering support to the Zionist cause and this time also it stood by its ally. However, two instances stood out that showed a bit of insensitivity on Washington's side. First was on July 14 when President Barack Obama hosted prominent American Muslims at the White House Iftar dinner. Obama probably chose a wrong occasion to reiterate Israel's right to defend itself against attacks from Hamas, especially at a time when scores of innocent Palestinian children and women were dying. The second was on the next day, on July 15, when a shipment of 4.3 ton US-manufactured arms arrived at the Port of Haifa, Israel.

Former US President Jimmy Carter in an article co-authored with former Irish President Mary Robinson for 'Foreign Policy' said, "There is no humane or legal justification for the way the Israeli Defence Forces are conducting this war… Hamas cannot be wished away, nor will it co-operate in its own demise". Carter and Robinson go on to say that only by recognising Hamas as a political player can the West provide it incentives to lay down arms. But it seems Obama is in no mood to listen to Carter.

 

BRICS leaders at Fortaleza

Playing both sides of the fence

New Delhi, it seems, is playing both sides of the fence. In mid July in a strong-worded statement released at Fortaleza, Brazil, India, along with other BRICS nations, censured Israel. However, a discussion on the Gaza conflict was not permitted in Parliament. Following this, on July 23, India voted in Palestine's favour at the UNHRC.

No friends in West Asia

Though the grand visions of a United Arab Republic and Arab Federation have more or less perished, the fault-lines that drove such ambitions during the mid-20th century are visible. If Arab socialism and nationalism were the threats to the monarchies in West Asia then, today it is democracy and variant Islamic schools of thought. That's why even though Saudi Arabia will not break bread with Israel it will not lend a hand to the Palestinian cause in which Hamas is a player. Add to this Syria's historical claim that Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine are part of Greater Syria (Damascus disapproves the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916) and the hostility the Palestinians have faced from Jordan's Hashemites, the Palestinians have few friends in the region.Read: Militants fire rockets at Israel as Gaza truce expires

John Kerry

So it's not surprising that there was not much condemnation from the Arab world against Israeli action, except for token statements calling for a ceasefire and peace from the Arab League. The 21-member league was, however, critical of US secretary of state John Kerry's meeting with officials from Qatar and Turkey (two countries that back Hamas) in Paris.

Far from a solution

While Israel maintains that it cannot lower its guard, the Palestinians are replete with stories of atrocities and injustice by Israel that 'occupies' its territory. Israel's violation of international norms, especially its spree of new settlements in the occupied territories (in 2013 there were about 540,000 Israelis living here), has made it hard for even its well-wishers to defend its cause. On the other hand, Hamas, which is ruling the Gaza Strip, without shunning its violent ways has not made it easy for the people of Palestine.

                                                                Pic: Twitter

In its zeal to 'protect' Israel's interests the IDF have forgotten the number of innocent Palestinians killed by its mindless bombings. In the din of new settlements coming up Tel Aviv has forgotten UN Resolution 242. Washington has shown double standards in defining human rights, and the world in general has remained a mute spectator. Hamas, which claims to represent the voice of a section of the Palestinian people, has been exposed and has done disservice to the Palestinians.

Israel has retreated to 'defensive positions' around Gaza claiming that its objective of destroying tunnels in Gaza has been achieved. But this is a pyrrhic victory — if at all there is a victor.

If Carter's words are uninspiring and violence is the preferred way, Israel and the US should consider another US president, John F Kennedy's words: Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind.

(This article appeared in the Hindustan Times on August 8)